PRO FARMER ANALYSIS: Pro Farmer Evening Report: Jan. 6, 2022

By PRO FARMER EDITORS January 6, 2022Click here for report details on weekly export sales/shipments.Check our advice monitor on for updates to our marketing plan.
U.S. trade deficit widens for November despite increased ag surplus… The U.S. had an $80.2 billion trade deficit for November, according to the Commerce Department. The U.S. imported $304.4 billion of goods in November, $13.4 billion more than October, and exported $224.2 billion, $400 million more than October. Year-to-date, the overall trade deficit increased $174.6 billion from the same period in 2020, with exports up $354.4 billion and imports $529.0 billion higher.
USDA will release full details on Friday, but the ag sector exported $18.5 billion and imported $15.4 billion of goods in November for a surplus of $3.1 billion. In October, the sector registered $17.6 billion of exports and $14.8 billion of imports, creating a monthly surplus of $2.8 billion. Fiscal year-to-date (since Oct. 1), U.S. agriculture has a $5.9 billion surplus, $36.1 billion of exports and $30.2 billion of imports. USDA forecasts signal a $10.5 billion ag trade surplus for FY 2022. More heat and dryness forecast for southern Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina… Drier and hotter weather is predicted for southern Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina, according to World Weather Inc.
For Paraguay and southern Brazil, little to no rain is expected over the next ten days and warmer temperatures return next week. The region will see steady increases in crop stress and declining yield potentials. Rio Grande do Sul will be driest and soil moisture levels are expected to continue to decline.  The next meaningful rain chance isn’t expected until Jan. 17-18. That would offer some temporary relief, though World Weather said the area would need more followup rain for crop improvements.
The rest of Brazil will see steady rain and favorable conditions for the next two weeks. However, the weather watcher is concerned that drier weather is needed for maturing soybeans in portions of central and northeastern Brazil.  Eastern Mato Grosso to western, central, and southern Minas Gerais and southern Espirito Santo will be the wettest areas and more flooding is possible.
In Argentina, World Weather expects the weather to turn hotter and drier after Friday into late next week. However, there might be a few showers in southern Argentina within the next week to ten days. The weather watcher says key crop areas from southern Cordoba to central Buenos Aires still have adequate subsoil moisture, but that moisture will soon be depleted and crop stress will likely increase starting this weekend. There might be a slight chance of rain from Jan. 15-17.
Two-thirds of U.S. winter wheat area in drought… The amount of U.S. winter wheat area in drought conditions remained constant at 65%, according to this week’s U.S. Drought Monitor. USDA reported 24% of the winter wheat area is in moderate drought, 22% in severe drought, 17% in extreme drought and 2% in exceptional drought. The previous week, USDA said 20% of the winter wheat area was in moderate drought, 28% in severe drought, 14% in extreme drought and 3% in exceptional drought.
There was some deterioration in the HRW growing areas of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Worsening conditions in Kansas were near the Oklahoma border. Kansas had a two-percentage-point increase to 75% of the state considered to be faced with abnormally dry/drought conditions.
Oklahoma held steady with 95% of the state considered abnormally dry/drought. Texas reported 92% of its area in abnormally dry/drought conditions, up five points from the previous week.
According to the Drought Monitor, in central and western portions of Texas and Oklahoma, deterioration was not as widespread and there were some small, scattered areas of improvement. However, most of central and western Texas, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, and central Oklahoma recorded 25 percent of normal precipitation or less for the past 60 days.
In the SRW growing areas, Missouri, Tennessee and Illinois saw improvements in drought conditions.  The drought footprint in Missouri declined 14 points to 36%. Tennessee has 13% of the state considered abnormally dry/drought conditions, down 11 points. Illinois has 11% of the state considered abnormally dry/drought conditions, down seven points.
Record Argentina wheat crop getting bigger… Argentine farmers are expected to harvest 21.8 MMT of wheat, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. The fourth increase over the past month by the exchange was due to higher-than-expected yields as farmers wrap up harvest.
“Along with the advance of the harvest, the yields collected in the southeast of Buenos Aires were improving, a key region due to its yield potential and its surface contribution to the national total planted,” the exchange reported in its weekly crop report. Ukraine grain exports continue to run ahead of last year… Ukraine has exported 33.2 MMT of grain so far in the 2021-22 marketing year, up 25.7% from a year ago, according to the country’s ag ministry. The total included 16.1 MMT of wheat, 11.5 MMT of corn and 5.2 MMT of barley.
Previously, the ministry has said 2021-22 exports could include 24.5 MMT of wheat, 30.9 MMT of corn, and 5.2 MMT of barley. Milling wheat exports could be limited to 4 MMT from mid-January through June 30. Last year, Ukraine’s exports included 16.6 MMT of wheat, 23.1 MMT of corn and 4.2 MMT of barley. Protest stops Brazil from importing wheat… Two vessels in Brazil’s Santos port had their unloading operations delayed due to agricultural tax collectors’ protest for higher wages, according to the local association Abitrigo. One vessel was able to unload, but officials have not cleared the wheat imports. The other boat is waiting to unload.
Brazil’s ag ministry is working to resolve the issue. Local association ABPA, which represents poultry and pork exporters, said tax auditors will understand the need for regular trade flow to continue and the problem should be “rapidly solved.” Soybean, corn and coffee exports were not affected so far, according to Anec, an association representing grain exporters, and coffee industry group Cecafe.

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